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The Cloud and Hype Cycles — Research Offers Insights

February 21
11:55 2013

Forbes’ website cites a recent Gartner report that specifically analyzes the Cloud and hype cycles. The Gartner analysis identifies five periods in what is termed the ‘hype cycle.’ The titles they give to these five phases are themselves very descriptive:

Technology Trigger
This is the initial phase in which a new technology emerges and first garners attention for its potential. For example, cloud security and risk standards are placed in this initial phase by Gartner.

Peak Of Inflated Expectations
The bandwagon effect typically takes over, as the believe in the capacity for true game-changing, paradigm shifting results tends to get irrational and overblown.  As one might intuitively figure, this is the shortest period of the five, and also the most volatile. It is the phase of ‘me too-ism’ and panic that a given enterprise might miss the boat. Oftentimes, haphazard investment and unfocused deployment of resources creates loss.

Trough Of Disillusionment
The third phase is the ‘trough of disillusionment.’ This phase is substantially longer than the initial two. It represents the period when new technologies, however great, have been so over-hyped that unrealized expectations engender disappointment and re-evaluation.

Slope Of Enlightenment
A yet longer period follows, during which innovation and reality come into greater balance. The promise of a new technology or approach is realized, but tempered by reality.

Plateau Of Productivity
As the name suggests, it is in this final phase that a new technology is widely integrated into the marketplace. Productivity gains are realized, albeit at a lesser level than the previous hype would have suggested.

Inflated Expectations — Some Examples:

For instance, even Gartner itself has pulled back from its previous forecast regarding corporate adoption of cloud-based e-mail. Last year, it had forecast a 20% adoption rate by 2014. Now, in the 2012 report, it cuts that forecast literally in half, down to just 10%.

Some businesses have discovered that deserting some direct, traditional selling for new cloud-based endeavors was at times counterproductive. Some enterprises found that they would have been better off maintaining their direct selling efforts until cloud-based efforts could be more precisely-defined and more specifically focused.

Private Clouds
Private Cloud Computing is in a period of high expectation. Three fourths of respondents state that they have strategies to deploy private clouds by 2014. However, there is not a strong indication that expectations in this area are all that inflated. The promise of private clouds may better live up to the hype.

For specific insight into how virtual servers and other cloud-based technologies can aid your enterprise’s success, visit today.

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